Statistics Profile

Andrew Chen

2005

Bluegrass Fencers' Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2245	1654 - 2835	1927	2245
Épée	Direct elimination	2809	1804 - 3813	2809	2809
Foil	Pool	3564	3382 - 3745	2724	3564
Foil	Direct elimination	4081	3908 - 4253	2600	4093

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.