Statistics Profile

Jay Reynolds

1990

Smokey Mountain Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2512	1979 - 3044	2364	2512
Épée	Direct elimination	2559	1977 - 3140	2485	2559
Foil	Pool	1443	823 - 2062	1443	1828
Foil	Direct elimination	1776	887 - 2664	1776	2386

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.