Statistics Profile

Andrew Collins

2004

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2519	1844 - 3193	2125	2519
Épée	Direct elimination	2807	2037 - 3576	2360	2807
Foil	Pool	1835	1349 - 2320	1764	1835
Foil	Direct elimination	2255	1488 - 3021	1735	2255
Saber	Pool	2451	2247 - 2654	1825	2530
Saber	Direct elimination	2703	2376 - 3029	1907	2978

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.