Statistics Profile

Matthew Millian

2002

Lincoln Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2616	2037 - 3194	2603	2616
Épée	Direct elimination	2382	1285 - 3478	2245	2382
Foil	Pool	2382	2011 - 2752	2189	2382
Foil	Direct elimination	1974	774 - 3173	1974	2089

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.