Statistics Profile

Ethan Ashby

2004

Salt City Swords Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3211	1935 - 4486	3211	3211
Épée	Direct elimination	1468	312 - 2623	1468	1468
Foil	Pool	2718	1267 - 4168	2718	2718
Saber	Pool	2613	2437 - 2788	2396	2930
Saber	Direct elimination	2865	2642 - 3087	2049	2978

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.