Statistics Profile

Lucas Chen

2004

Princeton Interscholastic Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	951	110 - 1791	951	951
Épée	Direct elimination	1694	495 - 2892	1694	1694
Saber	Pool	2421	2243 - 2598	2023	2573
Saber	Direct elimination	2715	2471 - 2958	1813	2781

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.