Statistics Profile

David Lender

2002

Illinois Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2861	2684 - 3037	2718	3042
Épée	Direct elimination	2854	2557 - 3150	2079	2969
Foil	Pool	2297	1624 - 2969	2297	3299
Foil	Direct elimination	1730	629 - 2830	1730	2062

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.