Statistics Profile

William Bailey

2000

Bluegrass Fencers' Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2459	1760 - 3157	2459	2459
Épée	Direct elimination	1808	588 - 3027	1808	1808
Foil	Pool	2516	2333 - 2698	2516	3234
Foil	Direct elimination	2791	2572 - 3009	2437	2891

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.