Statistics Profile

Katelyn McShine

2002

Johns Hopkins University NCAA Marx Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2416	2169 - 2662	2231	2600
Épée	Direct elimination	2803	2457 - 3148	2506	2866
Foil	Pool	2398	2200 - 2595	2155	2604
Foil	Direct elimination	2571	2267 - 2874	2423	2725

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.