Statistics Profile

Matthew Chaves

2005

Forge Fencing Teams DUR Brandeis University NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1843	1048 - 2637	1843	1843
Foil	Direct elimination	2505	1221 - 3788	2505	2505
Saber	Pool	2595	2428 - 2761	1957	2723
Saber	Direct elimination	2838	2665 - 3010	1972	2853

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.