Statistics Profile

Conner Shepherd

2003

Cleveland State Univ. NCAA Jovanovic Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2775	2580 - 2969	2574	2971
Épée	Direct elimination	3099	2815 - 3382	3019	3411
Foil	Pool	2558	2388 - 2727	2310	2837
Foil	Direct elimination	2764	2563 - 2964	1925	2818

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.