Statistics Profile

Castor Kao

2006

Star Fencing Academy Yale University Fencing NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2732	2292 - 3171	2637	2780
Épée	Direct elimination	2483	1804 - 3161	2170	2483
Foil	Pool	3282	3090 - 3473	2770	3456
Foil	Direct elimination	3610	3429 - 3790	2280	3654

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.