Statistics Profile

Zachary Green

2002

Bay Regional Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2340	2052 - 2627	2340	2969
Épée	Direct elimination	2291	1849 - 2732	1762	2313
Foil	Pool	1936	1699 - 2172	1493	2002
Foil	Direct elimination	1802	1399 - 2204	1667	2089
Saber	Pool	2177	1800 - 2553	2177	3264
Saber	Direct elimination	2856	2216 - 3495	2856	3069

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.