Statistics Profile

John Elder

1961

Nazlymov Fencing Foundation

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	767	0 - 1553	767	767
Épée	Direct elimination	1481	335 - 2626	1481	1481
Saber	Pool	1854	1680 - 2027	1753	2831
Saber	Direct elimination	2015	1721 - 2308	1873	2573

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.