Statistics Profile

Jake Hempe

2001

Mission Fencing Center Brandeis University NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2990	2780 - 3199	2293	3239
Foil	Direct elimination	3186	2820 - 3551	2275	3303

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.