Statistics Profile

Marcus Au

2004

Bay Area Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2432	2259 - 2604	2432	2921
Épée	Direct elimination	2685	2484 - 2885	2685	3291
Foil	Pool	2106	1613 - 2598	2106	2890
Foil	Direct elimination	2087	1518 - 2655	1767	2087

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.