Statistics Profile

John (Jack) Pavlinec

1998

College Of Charleston

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1976	1721 - 2230	1931	2314
Épée	Direct elimination	2179	1844 - 2513	1792	2246
Foil	Pool	1659	1416 - 1901	1246	1808
Foil	Direct elimination	1671	1281 - 2060	1636	1953

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.