Statistics Profile

Paul Lewis

2001

Austin Fencers Club Fencing Institute Of Texas

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2338	1670 - 3005	2338	2338
Épée	Direct elimination	2237	834 - 3639	2237	2237
Foil	Pool	2932	2758 - 3105	2786	3273
Foil	Direct elimination	3373	3190 - 3555	2079	3509
Saber	Pool	1956	1470 - 2441	1956	2147
Saber	Direct elimination	2448	1681 - 3214	2448	3163

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.