Statistics Profile

Aiden Holmes

2002

Salle Auriol Seattle

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1930	1540 - 2319	1824	1940
Foil	Direct elimination	1737	923 - 2550	1737	2046
Saber	Pool	2637	2455 - 2818	2530	2902
Saber	Direct elimination	2969	2776 - 3161	2595	3212

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.