Statistics Profile

Adam Catlin

2002

United Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3210	2188 - 4231	3210	3210
Épée	Direct elimination	2204	1171 - 3236	2204	2204
Foil	Pool	3070	2890 - 3249	2518	3084
Foil	Direct elimination	3345	3113 - 3576	2331	3362

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.