Statistics Profile

Rosabel Cepero

2003

Johns Hopkins University NCAA Masters Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2872	2694 - 3049	2566	3286
Foil	Direct elimination	3221	2978 - 3463	2349	3646
Saber	Pool	2348	1774 - 2921	2348	2478
Saber	Direct elimination	2062	1045 - 3078	1836	2062

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.