Statistics Profile

Carolina Geyer

2002

University of Incarnate Word Fencing NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2377	1843 - 2910	2313	2458
Épée	Direct elimination	3010	2290 - 3729	2939	3200
Foil	Pool	2569	2240 - 2897	1577	2569
Foil	Direct elimination	2264	1579 - 2948	1761	2264
Saber	Pool	2570	2398 - 2741	2034	2669
Saber	Direct elimination	2798	2558 - 3037	1832	2809

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.