Statistics Profile

Philip Harmon

2005

Fencing Club at Indiana University

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1784	1283 - 2284	1784	2034
Épée	Direct elimination	1413	396 - 2429	1413	2060
Foil	Pool	1563	1037 - 2088	1563	2321
Foil	Direct elimination	1816	1023 - 2608	1816	2397

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.