Statistics Profile

Caleb McIntosh

1990

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1850	1451 - 2248	1656	2086
Épée	Direct elimination	2419	1658 - 3179	2419	2697
Foil	Pool	2491	2143 - 2838	1795	2931
Foil	Direct elimination	2772	2288 - 3255	2772	3618

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.