Statistics Profile

Julia Douglas

2004

Northwestern University NCAA Rhode Island Fencing Academy And Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2679	2511 - 2846	2629	3243
Épée	Direct elimination	3049	2870 - 3227	2308	3081

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.