Statistics Profile

Casey Thorne

2000

East Bay Fencers Gym Phoenix Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2639	2367 - 2910	2639	2829
Épée	Direct elimination	2509	2100 - 2917	2396	3165
Foil	Pool	1714	1043 - 2384	1714	1714
Foil	Direct elimination	2582	1683 - 3480	2582	2582
Saber	Pool	1288	601 - 1974	1228	1288
Saber	Direct elimination	1506	438 - 2573	1506	2197

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.