Statistics Profile

Joshua Polster

1998

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2047	1805 - 2288	2000	2552
Épée	Direct elimination	1970	1553 - 2386	1970	2775
Saber	Pool	1690	1090 - 2289	1690	2868
Saber	Direct elimination	1844	1101 - 2586	1844	2711

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.