Statistics Profile

Hunter Grogan

2002

Vassar College Fencing Club NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1965	1468 - 2461	1965	2154
Épée	Direct elimination	1476	321 - 2630	1476	1591
Foil	Pool	1951	1713 - 2188	1246	1951
Foil	Direct elimination	1600	1008 - 2191	1009	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.