Statistics Profile

Dagny Johnson

2007

Tar Heels Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Saber	Pool	2628	2453 - 2802	2246	2701
Saber	Direct elimination	3034	2865 - 3202	2251	3034

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.