Statistics Profile

Thomas Howell

2002

Candlewood Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2558	2298 - 2817	2447	2745
Épée	Direct elimination	2732	2271 - 3192	2079	2857
Foil	Pool	2931	2450 - 3411	2895	2931
Foil	Direct elimination	1710	565 - 2854	1710	1816

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.