Statistics Profile

Natalie Yen

2006

PDX Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2518	2331 - 2704	2518	3589
Foil	Direct elimination	2910	2670 - 3149	2910	3824
Saber	Pool	2124	1939 - 2308	1876	2124
Saber	Direct elimination	2492	2203 - 2780	1662	2492

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.