Statistics Profile

Natalie Chaykina (Natalie Vargas)

1969

Indianapolis Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1846	1404 - 2287	1365	1988
Épée	Direct elimination	1562	466 - 2657	1562	1916
Foil	Pool	2098	1773 - 2422	2098	2378
Foil	Direct elimination	2088	1376 - 2799	1913	2279

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.