Statistics Profile

Lily Millard

2004

Capital District Fencing School Down East School of Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1834	1592 - 2075	1834	2645
Épée	Direct elimination	1879	1336 - 2421	1846	2297
Foil	Pool	1811	972 - 2649	1811	1811

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.