Statistics Profile

Aidan Montalbine

2003

Long Island Fencers Club Mission Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1880	1215 - 2544	1880	1880
Épée	Direct elimination	2730	1662 - 3797	2730	2730
Foil	Pool	1981	1810 - 2151	1776	2279
Foil	Direct elimination	2144	1949 - 2338	1278	2358

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.