Statistics Profile

Evelyn Cavanaugh

2004

Two Ravens Fencing School

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2038	1644 - 2431	1986	2238
Épée	Direct elimination	2507	1707 - 3306	2507	2563

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.