Statistics Profile

Erik Marran

2001

Manchen Academy Of Fencing Stevens Institute of Technology (University) NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2345	2169 - 2520	2345	2730
Épée	Direct elimination	2794	2546 - 3041	2342	3042
Foil	Pool	1878	1090 - 2665	1878	1878
Foil	Direct elimination	2063	753 - 3372	2063	2063

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.