Statistics Profile

Jonah Alexander

2003

Orion Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1582	396 - 2767	1582	1582
Foil	Direct elimination	1734	461 - 3006	1734	1734
Saber	Pool	1961	1640 - 2281	1906	2133
Saber	Direct elimination	2023	1434 - 2611	1558	2023

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.