Statistics Profile

Ryan Rauscher

2005

College of William & Mary Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1654	1063 - 2244	1638	1654
Foil	Direct elimination	1677	750 - 2603	1677	2060
Saber	Pool	2413	2229 - 2596	2120	2565
Saber	Direct elimination	2571	2355 - 2786	1732	2657

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.