Statistics Profile

Richard Lin

2003

Tim Morehouse Fencing Club (Port Chester)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1661	1049 - 2272	1661	1957
Épée	Direct elimination	1811	936 - 2685	1811	2326
Foil	Pool	3105	2932 - 3277	2857	3313
Foil	Direct elimination	3314	3136 - 3491	2725	3433

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.