Statistics Profile

Michael Zhang

2002

University Of North Carolina/Chapel Hill NCAA PDX Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Saber	Pool	2976	2754 - 3197	2517	3122
Saber	Direct elimination	2762	2331 - 3192	2031	2762

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.