Statistics Profile

Jackson Sullivan

2003

Moe Fencing Club LLC Brandeis University NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1622	852 - 2391	1622	1622
Épée	Direct elimination	2233	1277 - 3188	2233	2233
Foil	Pool	2982	2807 - 3156	2939	3407
Foil	Direct elimination	3358	3177 - 3538	2217	3521

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.