Statistics Profile

Tyson Van

1996

Saratoga Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1691	1427 - 1954	1138	1737
Épée	Direct elimination	1673	1108 - 2237	1462	2002
Foil	Pool	1782	1593 - 1970	1782	2436
Foil	Direct elimination	1935	1648 - 2221	1907	2560
Saber	Pool	1231	702 - 1759	1231	1231

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.