Statistics Profile

Julian Spier

2002

Ataba Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2777	2594 - 2959	2767	3554
Épée	Direct elimination	3280	3094 - 3465	2168	3399
Foil	Pool	3430	2288 - 4571	3430	3430
Foil	Direct elimination	2168	722 - 3613	2168	2168

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.