Statistics Profile

Matthew Barton

2006

Hillsdale College Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1349	987 - 1710	958	1408
Épée	Direct elimination	1773	1030 - 2515	1533	1773
Foil	Pool	877	330 - 1423	877	1499
Foil	Direct elimination	1470	459 - 2480	1470	1719

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.