Statistics Profile

Alexander Kercher

2008

Texas Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1796	1304 - 2287	1796	2544
Foil	Direct elimination	2586	1731 - 3440	2569	2627
Saber	Pool	1859	1691 - 2026	1859	2863
Saber	Direct elimination	2127	1946 - 2307	1813	2973

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.