Statistics Profile

Alexander Ng

2001

Arizona State University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2557	2371 - 2742	2189	2801
Épée	Direct elimination	2912	2619 - 3204	2844	3508
Foil	Pool	2562	1887 - 3236	2514	2629
Foil	Direct elimination	2444	1744 - 3143	2395	2501

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.