Statistics Profile

Hope Bowden

2003

Down East School of Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1219	512 - 1925	1219	1359
Foil	Direct elimination	1502	272 - 2731	1502	1502
Saber	Pool	1331	1017 - 1644	1331	1784
Saber	Direct elimination	1561	512 - 2609	1561	1931

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.