Statistics Profile

James Harwood

2003

Orion Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1732	1311 - 2152	1652	1732
Épée	Direct elimination	2282	1692 - 2871	2082	2570
Foil	Pool	1635	1393 - 1876	1364	1930
Foil	Direct elimination	2889	2508 - 3269	1861	2897
Saber	Pool	2359	2148 - 2569	2158	3100
Saber	Direct elimination	2444	2150 - 2737	1697	2444

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.