Statistics Profile

Dustin Smith

1986

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2782	2357 - 3206	2383	2985
Épée	Direct elimination	3427	2922 - 3931	3311	3605
Foil	Pool	3709	2799 - 4618	3544	3709
Foil	Direct elimination	2829	2005 - 3652	2829	3178

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.