Statistics Profile

Caspar Turck

2007

Cornell University Collegiate Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Saber	Pool	2456	2285 - 2626	2416	3006
Saber	Direct elimination	2770	2584 - 2955	2233	2966

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.